The Occupation in Figures
Nagorno-Karabakh: 1988-1992, territory 4400 km2; Shusha: may 08, 1992, territory 289 km2; Lachin: may 18, 1992, territory 1840 km2; Kalbajar: april 2, 1993, territory 3054 km2; Aghdam: july 23, 1993, territory 1150 km2; Fizuli: august 23, 1993, territory 1390 km2; Jabrayil: august 23, 1993, territory 1050 km2; Gubadli: august 31, 1993, territory 802 km2; Zangilan: october 29, 1993, territory 707 km2.

Russian political analyst: Serious progress on Karabakh conflict settlement achieved at St. Petersburg summit

Russian political analyst: Serious progress on Karabakh conflict settlement achieved at St. Petersburg summit


The Saint Petersburg summit on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict proved once again that Russia has taken the main role in settlement of the conflict, Alexei Mukhin, General Director of Russia’s Center for Political Information, said in a statement to APA’s Moscow correspondent.

“We see the West, especially, the US, as well as the European Union making attempts to solve the Donbass problem. Nagorno-Karabakh is what Russia has trouble with in relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia. It’s highly likely that the leaders of Russian, Azerbaijan and Armenia have decided to meet in order to avoid harsh intervention from the West—the US in particular—and the European Union,” said the political analyst.

According to him, the Saint Petersburg summit showed that the parties are still in conflict.

“The problems still remain. What’s more, nobody knows how long the agreement reached during the talks will be abided by. Time will tell,” he said.  

Mukhin noted that by hosting this meeting, Russia gave a message to the West.

“Moscow wanted to show the West that Russia has the final word in this region and will not allow the US and the EU to have considerable influence on the situation in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. It is well known that the West’s intervention will result in war, which does not correspond to interests of any of the parties. So I think the conflict parties have taken a well-measured decision,” he said.

The Russian expert said there is no probability of escalation of the conflict after the St. Petersburg summit.  

Speaking to APA, Sergei Markov, political analyst, director of the Russian Institute of Political Studies told APA that it was not a meeting that took place for the sake of meeting. 

He stressed that a serious progress towards the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was achieved at the St. Petersburg meeting.

According to him, this meeting was important for the decision to be passed in the near future.

The political analyst noted that “the four-day war” in April showed that the conflict must be solved.

“Moscow unequivocally shares the position of Baku in this issue. Russia is in favor of the conflict’s settlement. Thus, Moscow is taking an active part in this issue. Yerevan is of course interested in protraction of the conflict,” he said.

According to him, the fact that the presidents had discussions without aides suggests the talks were deep in content and serious decisions were made.

“The presidents discussed the Kazan formula that envisages firstly the return of 5 adjacent districts to Nagorno-Karabakh, then 2 districts to Azerbaijan except the corridor to Armenia. The sides also mulled the possible deployment of peacekeepers in the territory between Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent districts. The deployment of peacekeepers was offered as a guarantee against a military intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh,” the political analyst added.

To the question “If the Kazan formula was discussed at the trilateral meeting, then why do the meeting participants, officials say nothing about its details and the agreements?, Markov replied: “The details of the meeting are not disclosed. This shows that the trilateral meeting held in St. Petersburg had actually a real content. When a significant decision is adopted, the mediators keep it secret. Yesterday’s meeting is an example of it. I believe that a final agreement will be signed after two or three such meetings. For the present, meetings are aimed at eliminating disagreements on the points of the Kazan formula. These disagreements are related to issues such as providing Armenia one or two corridors, the return of 5-6 or 7 districts at the initial stage, the need for a referendum in the future and the reflection of the final agreement in the UN resolutions. For example, Baku insists on the final agreement being included in the UN Security Council resolutions which demand the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories and support the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan.  However, Yerevan is against it. I think such controversial points will be solved at the next meetings,” the political analyst concluded.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict entered its modern phase when the Armenian SRR made territorial claims against the Azerbaijani SSR in 1988.

A fierce war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. As a result of the war, Armenian armed forces occupied some 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory which includesNagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts (Lachin, KalbajarAghdam,FuzuliJabrayilGubadli and Zangilan), and over a million Azerbaijanis became refugees and internally displaced people.

The military operations finally came to an end when Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in Bishkek in 1994.

Dealing with the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the OSCEMinsk Group, which was created after the meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council in Helsinki on 24 March 1992. The Group’s members include Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, the United States, France, Italy, Germany, Turkey, Belarus, Finland and Sweden.

Besides, the OSCE Minsk Group has a co-chairmanship institution, comprised of Russian, US and French co-chairs, which began operating in 1996.  

Resolutions 822, 853, 874 and 884 of the UN Security Council, which were passed in short intervals in 1993, and other resolutions adopted by the UN General Assembly, PACEOSCE, OIC, and other organizations require Armenia to unconditionally withdraw its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh.